Circle Sees 40% Stablecoin Growth as Base Case, Says Banks Aren’t the Real Competition

Circle is betting big on stablecoins, and not in a speculative way. The company says a 40% stablecoin growth rate is its base case rather than an aggressive upside scenario. Even more telling is what it does not see as a threat: banks.

At first glance, that position may seem counterintuitive. Stablecoins have long been framed as alternatives to traditional banking rails, offering faster settlements, lower costs, and global reach. Circle’s stance suggests the market is moving past the disruption narrative and into a more functional phase.

According to the company, the next wave of adoption will be driven by real-world use cases rather than crypto-native hype. Payments, treasury management, cross-border settlements, and on-chain liquidity are emerging as key demand drivers. Those applications do not require banks to disappear. They require banks to evolve.

The 40% projection is central to this outlook. A stablecoin growth rate at that level points to steady, compounding adoption rather than cyclical speculation. It assumes regulatory clarity continues to improve, institutional comfort deepens, and stablecoins become embedded within existing financial workflows.

Circle’s view of banks as collaborators rather than competitors reflects this shift. Banks already manage deposits, compliance, and trust at scale. Stablecoins contribute programmability, speed, and global interoperability. The overlap between both systems is smaller than it appears and, in many cases, complementary.

Regulation also plays a critical role in this confidence. As regions such as the United States, the European Union, and Hong Kong advance clearer stablecoin frameworks, regulated issuers gain a structural advantage. Growth in this environment is less about rapid experimentation and more about operating safely at scale.

For the broader market, this signals maturity. Stablecoins are no longer positioned as a rebellion against the financial system. They are increasingly framed as infrastructure within it. That reframing reduces institutional resistance and creates room for deeper adoption.

If Circle’s base case proves accurate, stablecoins will grow not only in size but in relevance. The defining story will not be banks versus stablecoins. It will be how closely the two ultimately work together.